CBOT floor traders cheer for Ron Paul

Graceland

Sharks Are Pissed

For years global shark populations have been declining while shark attacks have been gradually increasing. It makes sens to me, if sharks were killing off the global human populations then I'd be pissed. I'd be going after those jerk sharks that made me their enemy. Unfortunately, there is a simple explanation for the decline in most wildlife populations on this planet.

"Because the global population of humans is growing fast, so more people go to the beach, said George Burgess, curator of the International Shark Attack File at the Florida Museum of Natural History. And nowadays, beach-goers don't just go for a dunk. They hang out in shallow water (home for many sharks) for long periods of time to surf, windsurf, boogie-board, kayak and dive.

The number of worldwide shark attacks overall increased from 63 in 2006 to 71 in 2007, continuing a gradual upswing over the past four years, Burgess said.

Sharks are disappearing from the world's oceans due to overfishing, says Julia Baum, a researcher at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in San Diego. Baum and some of her shark-tracking colleagues made comments to reporters earlier this month at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston

Sharks killed one human in 2007, according to the International Shark Attack File, but humans killed an estimated 38 million sharks for their fins each year (or up to 73M), Baum said. That's as many sharks as the entire human populations of the 35 largest cities in the United States." -source

Being scared of sharks is really laughable for anyone who gets around in an automobile. There are around 70 shark attacks worldwide but how does that compare with car accidents? There are an estimated 1.2 million car accidents worldwide each year leading to roughly 3000 dead per day, versus one death by shark per year. In fact, its very likely you'll live if you happen to be one of the 70 poor souls who gets bitten:

"Your odds of living are greater than 90 percent. The rate of shark-attack fatalities hit an all-time low in 2007 for the past 20 years, Burgess said. In fact, the trend for shark-bite fatalities in the 20th century is "down, down, down, decade by decade," Burgess said...

The real story isn't shark attacks, Burgess said. "The real story is what is happening to skates, sharks and rays on a worldwide basis. We have witnessed, in the last 20 to 30 years, huge declines in these animals worldwide. " -source

So I can understand why the sharks might be oh, just a little bit upset. I personally love sharks, love to swim with them. In fact the pictures in this post were taken by yours truly last summer. If you want to see some really amazing interactions between sharks and humans check out my post on tonic immobility.

*Update: Anti-shark device eaten by an irony-loving great white

IB Olympiad Final Week Eight

Liquidation Value: $1,356,716.21 +$76,913.75 on the week

Ending Positions:

Longs:

TTWO
RESP
KWD
DBC
CHK
BEAS
VMSI

Shorts:

DF

Naked option positions (options sold short):

ABH March 17.50p
CONN March 20c
EJ March 20c
FXP March 85p
IOC March 25c
JRCC March 20c
NTRI March 25c
SKF March 110p
SNP March 110p
SOLF March 20c
THRX March 20c

Well, I have to be very pleased with this result and I am. As I mentioned last week, the account surpassed last year's overall performance. A 36% two month gain on a $1M account is something to be proud of no doubt. And I feel pretty confident that the program could yield these returns in the real market consistently. The program takes a large number of positions so its diversified against a single bad trade and over longer time scales it is market neutral. In other words, it doesn't care if the market is going up or down. It does however greatly benefit from volatile markets and thats what we had during the competition.

During the course of this year's competition the S&P 500 declined 5.90% (open to close) and dropped as much as 10.2% (in the first three weeks). So I would like to especially congratulate any competitors that we able to make a profit during this tough period for the market. It may just be a statistical blip, but the market has been extremely volatile during the competition the past two years. Perhaps there is a lesson about market volatility in the early parts of the year or maybe its just a coincidence. Anyways, here's what the S&P did during the competition:

By the way, that chart is breaking pretty badly, see Stock Geometry for more details on my thoughts. I was going to post the charts of a few of the biggest winners for the program but the fact is that there were alot of winners. Like I said, the program was very diversified so there were a large number of successful trades. But there was one trade that it recently made that I am particularly proud of and resembles the types of trades that made my program bank. Click on this chart for some details:

So yeah, that was a particlarly good trade with perfect timing. If you are interested in some of the other stocks that the program got involved with check out my last seven weekly updates. For readers who trade, there are some really great trading stocks in the program's positions. I would urge traders to bring up charts of some of the positions the program had the last two weeks. I have gotten some good ideas from this software.

Well that about wraps it up, I hope others had just as much success as I did but not so much that I won't get a "third place" prize of $10k. But I realize that the competition was very fierce this year and it is unlikely that I will be in the top 13 (required to make 10k or more). I am mostly just happy that I was able to do better than last year. I have some good ideas for next year and I'm looking forward to getting started on a completely new program soon. While I just modified last year's program for the 2008 competition, I think I'm going to re-write the whole thing for next year.

I'll post an update after the final results are up, have a great relaxing weekend everyone!

IB Olympiad Week Seven

Liquidation Value: $1,279,802.46 +$74,037.66 on the week

Positions:

Longs:

BEAS
BUCY
CHK
DBA
DBC
DTV
KWD
MOGN
MT
MTL
RESP
RTSX
VMSI
IGT

Shorts:

AMLN
BX
COG
DGX
RMD
WLT
XL

Naked option positions (options sold short):

ABH March 17.50p
CONN March 20c
EJ March 20c
FXP March 85p
IOC March 25c
JRCC March 20c
NTRI March 25c
SKF March 110p
SNP March 110p
SOLF March 20c
THRX March 20c

Today the account was officially above last year's overall performance. So I have achieved my personal goal of performing better this year, woohoo! Unfortunately, the competition is much more intense this year with 10th place being up 50% last Friday, so I might not make another $10k. Theres still a week left though and perhaps there will be some disqualifications again this year. Wish me luck.

Mobius Kick

IB Olympiad Week Six

Liquidation Value: $1,205,764.80 +$11,199.08 on the week

Positions:

Longs:
BEAS
CHK
DBA
DBC
KWD
MOGN
RESP
RTSX
VMSI

Shorts:
AFFX
GCI
MELI
N
UBS

Naked option positions (options sold short):
FXP March 85p

Options that expired worthless today:
ADS Feb 40p
ARTC Feb 35p
CCRT Feb 20c
EJ Feb 25c
FSLR Feb 220c
GRA Feb 25c
LULU Feb 25p
MBI Feb 20c
MTG Feb 20c