Closing Liquidation Value: $918,915.53
Well, the account had plenty of cash after all the February options expired last week. It also had recovered some of the losses in naked bank stocks that it had been put. So I ran the program today and it did surprisingly well. The program made money on an SSO daytrade, also on a DXO purchase and it sold a boat load of naked calls on many surging stocks this afternoon including WFC, HIG, COF, GNK, LNC and STI. At this point I would say the program definately has a bearish position aside from a few stock positions which I had been put (PNC and PRU), and oil of course. Lets see how that plays out in the remaining days of this year's competition.
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24 comments:
Hey,So it seems now that you will also end up in positive...great recovery from early losses.
Its not VIX ,its something else..
Yeah,Email would be better communication medium than this.
Ya now I want to avoid short term overbought/oversold position and keep following trend.
Thanks, looks like we are seeing some follow through today after yesterday's pullback/throwback.
Yeah,Yesterday we was A Dead Cat Bounce.
Well, on the S&P I wouldn't quite call it a dead cat bounce because we bounced off support at the nov lows. However, looking at the dow and most of the bank stocks which bounced from oversold conditions at new lows, yeah I'd call those dead cat bounces. Lets hope this continues and the S&P breaks hard through 741.02 before the competition ends. Its really not a question of 'if' but 'when.' imho
hey, chintan
I have a suggestion for you. How about you start preparing for a career in garbage processing?
Your "secret" instrument is the second most liquid currency trading pair, wow! Yes, you should be REALLY scared to disclose it.
its not about choosing xxx instruments.its all about anticipating correct trend
Chintan, hey I was going to respond to some of those comments. You really didn't have to go and delete them all. To make it in this industry you really will have to grow up a little. You are just a sophmore so there's plenty of time for that.
Yes, I think a 20% gain will look great on your resume and it leaves plenty of room for improvement in future years.
The yen is well known to be correlated inversely with the S&P because of the carry trade. A higher yen implies an unwinding of the carry trade suggesting a lower appetite for risk, as I'm sure you know. So more or less its a bearish bet to be long the yen. And there should be some correlation between the yen and the VIX, perhaps I'll make up a chart on it and put it on SG. I am amazed you were able to get such high leverage on it though. The yen was down ~1% yesterday but your account lost 30%?
Anyways, you are right its not about asset vehicle, its about the trend. And if your program was bullish on the yen then it was a good call. But I wouldn't worry about people finding out about the yen, its a pretty widely watched thing. I read a report on it almost every morning from Dennis Gartman and I ain't the only one. =)
Hey Chintan, did you see this post by my fellow Stock Geometry blogger ChicagoStock a few weeks ago?:
http://stockgeometry.blogspot.com/2009/02/japanese-yen-bearish-delight.html
He really nailed it.
before 2 days ,I got killed when I was short on usd/jpy,otherwise for about 5 weeks i was long on usd and short on jpy..but now things are pretty dangerous as that pair has become overbought and it will experience further pull back but it will rise in next week is not fix,and I tried to short it but i got killed due to leverage and its solid momentum on upside.
I got long on it when usd/jpy lost its correllation with s&p,as mostly jpy is called safe haven whenever economy gets sink.But before couple of weeks even japan's GDP was -13% down.So this rally of usd/jpy is based on japanese fundamentals which hardly happens.so it has lost the inverse correllation with s&p by all means and trading on its own fundamentals.Another thing which was very interesting is it also created a double bottom which you can compare with stockcharts website's chart of it.It was exactly same,so that was the another reason for trading it.I had made a autocorrellation program on excel and after making double bottom jpy lost it correllation with s&p.But as I told you my strategy was intraday only so i lost lots of equity in transaction costs and daily fluctuations.
i am down from 56 to 23%.SO if I try to trade further even I may loss even more.Its better for me to stop here.If they organize this stuff next year then I would like to gamble for top prize.
Indeed It was really good learning experience and I learned a lot from this competition.
I deleted my post because someone namely v__ps3 was teasing me.
I am a Rookie.And I have plenty of time to learn about markets.But my target is to get admission in descent masters finance program.So for that this kind of experience will be helpful for me.what do you say?
well,These reports really lags.As when I was reading Dailyfx,all their analysts were bearish no yen when it was trading at 89 to 92.But then in just few days its trading around 97-98.and now they are saying bullish.yeah it is bullish but for this competition its useless.as now only 5 days are left.
one can make maximum money only if he/she take his/her position before the trend begins.
before 2 days i got short on yen when it was trading 97,as it was pretty overbought,but i got killed as it had so strong momentum and i took unnecessary high leverage.so dont want to repeat this of mistake by making further bet on either side.
One thing which I realized during this competition was that markets were mostly trading on technical basis,there wasnt any room for fundamental basis.
I have atleast 1.8 years before applying for masters.and I have acquire enough knowledge of financial markets to make really some cool projects.
So,do you have anykind of idea for projects?
like ML in finance,NLP news,stock picking stuff etc...
http://stockgeometry.blogspot.com/2009/02/japanese-yen-bearish-delight.html
I guess,he said inverse hand and shoulders But i was with double bottom!..
Hey Chintan, Yes I think this was a good experience for you from the way you describe your effort. But only you can really say if you learned anything from it or not. Just keep at it, keep working on your code and I'm sure that you will see improvement over time. Keep an eye on the markets, but it can be exhausting. And the best way to learn anything about market psychology and trading is to do it with real money. So if you win some money this year you can start with that cash.
Yeah,I will try.
All the best to your DT 2009.
Thanks, good luck to you too
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