Monday, March 5, 2007

Olympiad Day 30

What an amazing day for the portfolio it was after the sub-prime lenders (NEW, NFI, LEND, FMT, etc) all fell hard again. The sub-prime implosion has taken this software for a ride over the last 7 weeks. First it was trying to short NFI day after day, but no shares were available. On day five LEND got shorted at 25.80 and was quickly covered for a .27 loss by the end of day (it hit a low of 15 today, 42% lower). Then on day fifteen the software had two of its sweetest entries ever:

"Shorts:
389 FMT @ 12.47
528 NEW @ 18.93"

NEW was stopped out that day down 2.15, a sweet intraday profit and even though the position was closed weeks ago FMT fell as low as 5.50 today (44% drop)!! Then on day sixteen without realizing that a new option buying routine had been left accidentally "on" (uncommented) in the software bought NFI puts to go with a failed attempt to short the stock (which it had been unable to do for two weeks). This trade was forgotten until day 21 when the software took an even larger stake in NFI's demise by selling 50 naked calls in the stock the day before earnings (since they were so expensive and the stock ran up). Then the stock cratered 45% overnight on the fear that NFI, like NEW was may be about to go bankrupt. Those taken profits vaulted the software into the top 13 contention, although if the put position had been held( and profits not taken) I would be in the top 3. These sub primers also snagged the program on the downside in a few cases. Naked puts were sold on FMT and NEW at one point, both were stopped out at over 100% losses. And these positions would have destroyed the account if they had been held to present day. I thought the software was finally through with this roller coaster until today when I realized how big of a deal a small glitch in the closing of the NEW position was. This glitch resulted in a net long position of six NEW march 15 puts, by complete chance. When the stock imploded down 70% to 4$ today on news that they face a criminal probe and can't fulfill financial obligations, you can imagine how much these six puts moved. Now the software is back where it was before the big crash last week but now in a much more bearish stance and it would appear nothing will stand in its way of going all the way till Friday in the top thirteen (knock on wood) x 6 .



Closing Liquidation Value: $123,519 +$5,887

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